Unlocking the Secrets of Energy Production: Understanding “Decoding Decline”

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In today’s constantly evolving energy landscape, having a deep understanding of the intricacies of oil and gas production is vital in making well-informed decisions. With a combined 55 years of industry experience, Bill Shanahan and Brian Pieri from energyrogue.com have successfully unraveled the mystery of “decoding decline” – a phenomenon that has a significant impact on the energy commodities market.

What You’ll Gain:

  • Understanding the natural decline in oil and gas well production and its effects on supply
  • Analyzing supply data, decline curves, new production layers, and net effects across major basins
  • Using rig counts as a leading indicator for future productio
  • Estimating ultimate recovery (EUR) and rig efficiency to project declines and new output requirements
  • Transforming supply and demand insights into actionable strategies

The Dilemma of Decline:

Over time, oil and gas wells experience a natural decline in production, with the US witnessing a staggering 3.6% or 3.6 bcf per day decline every month. To maintain supply levels, new production must continuously offset this decline. Shanahan and Pieri use interactive charts and data to analyze supply data, decline curves, new production layers, and the net effect on various basins such as the Permian, Eagleford, and Anadarko.

Tracking the Trends:

For instance, in the Eagleford basin, new production of 357,000 mcf/day is lower than the base decline of 382,000 mcf/day, resulting in an overall decline. Rig counts serve as a leading indicator for future production, with the Anadarko basin’s rig count declining from 24 to 16 in the Cana Woodford formation, signaling potential future supply declines.

Projecting Production:

Factors such as the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) and rig efficiency, which have shown improvement but are now flattening out, are crucial in projecting declines and new production requirements. Shanahan and Pieri offer three service tiers: Rogue Edge for data access, Rogue Premium ($179/month) for strategic guidance, community access, and monthly consultations, and Rogue Advantage for personalized consulting.

Transforming Data into Strategy:

By closely monitoring the net change in production and understanding the interplay between various factors such as renewables and electricity demand, Shanahan and Pieri strive to provide affordable, data-driven insights and strategies to effectively navigate the energy markets. As Pieri explains, “We created energyrogue.com to make it easy, simple, and affordable for people to access this information. We monitor the net change in production to determine if they are declining or shrinking, and then we take a closer look.”

Key Takeaways:

  • Oil and gas wells experience a natural decline in production, requiring continuous new output
  • Analyzing supply, decline curves, new production layers, and net effects across basins is crucial
  • Rig counts, EUR, and rig efficiency are key factors in projecting declines and new output requirements
  • Transforming supply and demand insights into actionable strategies is the ultimate goal
  • Energyrogue.com offers affordable, data-driven tools for effectively navigating energy markets

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𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐬:

Rogue Edge and Premium:https://energyrogue.com/register/

Natural Gas Basics Course:https://www.reeseenergygoesrogue.com/

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𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠

O&G Producers:https://www.energy-rogue.com/webinar-ngl-registration

Nat Gas Traders:https://www.energy-rogue.com/natgas_trading_webinar

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𝐒𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐬:

https://www.linkedin.com/company/energy-rogue/

https://www.tiktok.com/@energyrogue

https://www.youtube.com/@energyroguellc8895

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